A TG4 opinion poll for Kerry has shown Deputy Michael Healy Rae in a commanding lead in the new 5 seat Kerry constituency, but predicts that its all to play for with six candidates potentially chasing the remaining four seats.
The TG4 Ipsos MRBI poll puts Michael Healy Rae on 33% of first preference votes, with Jimmy Deenihan and Brendan Griffin on 13%, John Brassil on 11%, Arthur Spring on 8%, Martin Ferris 7%, Norma Moriarty 6% and Danny Healy Rae 4%.
The remaining candidates are on 2% and lower.
The survey was carried out among a sample a 500 adults in Kerry last Thursday and Friday.
Sitting TD Michael Healy Rae leads by a substantial margin of 33% and the poll predicts his transfers will put his brother Danny in the running for a seat despite a low first preference vote.
It notes that Danny Healy Rae had only declared his candidature on the morning of the poll.
FG are certain to get a seat and probably two with Jimmy Deenihan and Brendan Griffin both on 13% according to the findings that suggest if Arthur Spring of Labour were to be eliminated at any point he would transfer in reasonable numbers to FG.
FF’s John Brassil is in contention to win a seat but could depend on transfers from his party colleague Norma Moriarty who could also transfer to other south Kerry candidates.
Martin Ferris is some way off the quota on 7%, and the poll predicts that both he and Arthur Spring could lose out to Danny Healy Rae but points out that there is a margin of error for all polls and there is still time left for campaigning.